Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D5 0xd5eb…89ce sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$14 (-4%) realized −$21 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$18
other 43% +$80
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+56.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +73.3% +56.8% 71% 71% +31.8%
≤30d 7 +73.3% +56.8% 71% 71% +31.8%
≤90d 7 +73.3% +56.8% 71% 71% +31.8%
all 7 +73.3% +56.8% 71% 71% +31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.8% 71% +31.8%
10% +41.8% 57% +19.2%
15% +28.1% 57% +7.7%
20% +15.5% 57% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.66 per $1 lost it wins $4.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to S Jun 26 $10 +$8 +84%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire Jun 25 $25 +$19 +77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $105 +$21 +20%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 Jun 24 $0 +$2 +344%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 24 $36 +$67 +188%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.56 · official $135.05 · 17 history records