Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D5 0xd5eb…f67f crypto 371 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,591 (+19%) realized +$14,562 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%149W / 224L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$588
7 days+$1,006
14 days+$1,006
30 days+$1,006
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$6,733
sports 3% +$1,253
world 0% −$250
other 0% −$144
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.9% -13.9% 37% 37% +19.1%
≤30d 27 -4.9% -13.9% 37% 37% +19.1%
≤90d 222 -23.4% -30.7% 31% 30% -19.4%
all 373 +4.1% -5.8% 40% 39% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 39% +0.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 38% -9.0%
15% -23.0% 36% -17.8%
20% -30.6% 34% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +35% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$140 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$569
Realized+$14,562
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses149 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 371
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 38¢ 40¢ $540 $569 +$29 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$23 -412%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $234 −$223 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$28 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $133 −$126 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $167 −$160 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$37 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $126 +$267 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $220 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $162 +$283 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $229 +$310 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $270 +$279 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $95 −$90 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $177 +$253 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $314 +$547 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $239 −$230 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $198 −$190 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $312 +$298 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$119 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$66 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 12 $393 −$375 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 12 $354 −$338 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 12 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 12 $140 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 12 $187 −$156 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 12 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 12 $209 +$316 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 12 $120 −$114 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 12 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 12 $31 +$38 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 11 $79 −$70 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 11 $78 −$75 -96%
AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Lanús: O/U 1.5 May 10 $152 +$86 +57%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 10 $105 +$299 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Huracán end in a draw? May 09 $20 +$30 +145%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 09 $63 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 09 $53 +$222 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 09 $101 −$96 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $210 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $208 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $31 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $366 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.76 · official $540.67 · 3500 history records