Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd5eb…b9d6
crypto · 62 markets active 20h ago
1.5score
+$7,347 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,402 · open −$202
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,824
Realized+$10,402
Unrealized−$202
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
Avg bet$603
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2,533 $2,475 −$58 (-2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $327 $232 −$95 (-29%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $166 $116 −$50 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 08 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 04 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 04 $6 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 04 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? May 04 $345 −$322 -94%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 28 $3,758 −$3,069 -82%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 14 $85 −$12 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 13 $110 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 13 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 13 $10 +$12 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 13 $111 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 13 $45 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $4,418 +$2,097 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 12 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 11 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 11 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 11 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 11 $25 −$19 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 11 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 11 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 11 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 11 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 11 $99 −$67 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 11 $47 +$24 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 11 $58 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 11 $26 +$31 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 11 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 11 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 11 $7 +$10 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 11 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 11 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 11 $12 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 22 $307 −$198 -65%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 11 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 66% +$13,912
economics 29% −$3,363
crypto 2% −$230
world 2% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $60 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 18¢ $50 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 20¢ $10 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $43 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 21¢ $80 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 20¢ $97 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $52 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 5¢ $272 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 18¢ $191 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 6¢ $65 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $29 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $7 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $12 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $146 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $260 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 7¢ $8 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 7¢ $13 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 24¢ $66 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 23¢ $98 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 24¢ $0 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 24¢ $0 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 24¢ $56 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 23¢ $220 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 22¢ $61 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $17 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $17 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $21 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $21 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -20.8% -28.3% 0% 0% -28.3%
≤30d 1 -20.8% -28.3% 0% 0% -28.3%
≤90d 43 -50.1% -54.9% 26% 23% +8.3%
all 59 -37.1% -43.1% 27% 25% +35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 25% +35.9%
10% -48.5% 20% +22.9%
15% -53.5% 19% +11.0%
20% -58.0% 15% +0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,823.57 · official $2,823.57 (match) · 441 history records