Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D5 0xd5e8…3467 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day74.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-28.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-20.9%	-28.5%	48%	29%	-21.8%
≤30d	21	-20.9%	-28.5%	48%	29%	-21.8%
≤90d	21	-20.9%	-28.5%	48%	29%	-21.8%
all	21	-20.9%	-28.5%	48%	29%	-21.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover74.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-28.5%	29%	-21.8%
10% ← realistic here	-35.3%	10%	-29.3%
15%	-41.6%	10%	-36.1%
20%	-47.3%	5%	-42.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late -54% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.38 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day74.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 16	$4	$0	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$2	-52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$1	-42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$1	-38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$1	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$1	-24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 16	$3	$0	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 15	$3	+$1	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 15	$3	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	SELL Up	52¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	SELL Down	46¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	SELL Down	35¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	SELL Down	2¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	SELL Down	2¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	SELL Up	52¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$1	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	SELL Down	27¢	$1	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$1	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	SELL Up	49¢	$2	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$1	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$1	8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	SELL Up	55¢	$1	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records