Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5e8…ceef crypto 310 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10,850 (-3%) realized −$10,850 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate91%278W / 29L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,323per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$108
14 days−$109
30 days−$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$9,096
other 4% +$2,267
sports 1% −$4,335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -1.1% -10.5% 91% 26% -11.8%
≤30d 158 -1.7% -11.0% 91% 16% -11.1%
≤90d 158 -1.7% -11.0% 91% 16% -11.1%
all 307 +0.3% -9.2% 91% 29% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 29% -12.0%
10% -17.9% 8% -20.4%
15% -25.9% 2% -28.1%
20% -33.1% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,889) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$1,382 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses278 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)307 / 310
History coverage196d
Avg bet$1,323
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 307 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $146 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $140 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $210 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $208 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $193 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $190 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $201 +$8 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $215 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $170 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $172 +$31 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $165 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $141 +$18 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $78 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $79 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $69 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $98 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $78 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $69 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $202 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 06 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $191 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $167 +$25 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $132 +$29 +22%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $129 +$9 +7%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 06 $105 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 06 $99 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $152 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $150 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $146 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $144 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $140 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND N BUY 26¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $210 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $208 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $193 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $190 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Alg BUY 10¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $57 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $49 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $215 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $170 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $172 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $165 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $141 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $140 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $78 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $79 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $70.00 · 675 history records