Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D5 0xd5e8…fafc sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,074 (+24%) realized +$1,148 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$363
7 days+$1,099
14 days+$1,119
30 days+$1,119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$554
other 9% +$491
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +14.1% +3.3% 55% 55% +14.8%
≤30d 22 +11.9% +1.2% 55% 55% +14.1%
≤90d 22 +11.9% +1.2% 55% 55% +14.1%
all 22 +11.9% +1.2% 55% 55% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 55% +14.1%
10% -8.5% 55% +3.2%
15% -17.3% 55% -6.8%
20% -25.4% 55% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$145 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$1,148
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 30¢ $241 $167 −$74 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $84 +$81 +96%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $287 +$302 +105%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $245 −$241 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $137 −$136 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $294 +$309 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $153 +$155 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $109 −$107 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 15 $170 −$167 -99%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $523 +$286 +55%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $115 −$13 -12%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $254 −$249 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $179 +$154 +86%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $140 +$170 +122%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $259 +$320 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $320 −$320 -100%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 11 $224 +$340 +152%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $76 −$75 -98%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Jun 11 $278 +$203 +73%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $190 +$145 +76%
Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 11 $127 +$100 +78%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $245 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $65 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $287 15h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 43¢ $245 17h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $70 23h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $67 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $294 37h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $153 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $109 41h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 53¢ $170 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 47¢ $99 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 53¢ $3 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 53¢ $53 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 53¢ $56 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 53¢ $6 2d
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 44¢ $254 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $247 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $276 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $179 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $315 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $0 5d
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 45¢ $4 5d
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 45¢ $135 5d
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 44¢ $259 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $76 6d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) SELL G2 NORD 100¢ $481 6d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 39¢ $224 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.14 · official $169.88 · 51 history records