Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5e7…15da sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,928 (-22%) realized −$2,928 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$85
14 days+$84
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$3,112
world 23% +$382
politics 22% −$2
other 1% −$102
crypto 1% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +23.0% +11.3% 59% 59% +3.8%
≤30d 28 +15.7% +4.7% 54% 54% +3.5%
≤90d 28 +15.7% +4.7% 54% 54% +3.5%
all 40 -1.7% -11.1% 45% 45% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 45% -28.3%
10% -19.6% 35% -35.2%
15% -27.4% 32% -41.4%
20% -34.5% 28% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$192 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,928
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 45
History coverage604d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +187%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $46 +$8 +18%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +230%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 AN Jun 16 $100 +$143 +142%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $17 +$2 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $68 +$51 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 +$88 +108%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $17 −$16 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 13 $8 +$1 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +113%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2 $0 -11%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 22-28? Dec 25 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 22-28? Dec 25 $30 −$29 -96%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 23 $36 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Oct 25 $2,401 −$1,576 -66%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Oct 25 $446 +$128 +29%
Vikings vs. Rams Oct 25 $1,856 −$1,782 -96%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Oct 24 $3,110 +$385 +12%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Oct 23 $202 −$96 -48%
Chargers vs. Cardinals Oct 23 $490 −$490 -100%
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Oct 22 $1,230 +$606 +49%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $3,002 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 AND Por BUY 60¢ $59 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 AND Ira SELL 94¢ $54 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 AND Ira BUY 79¢ $46 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 AN SELL 69¢ $243 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 AN BUY 27¢ $100 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $100 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 54¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 53¢ $19 2d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $17 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $118 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $68 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $168 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $81 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $100 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.90 · official $59.80 · 104 history records