Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5e7…d0cf sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$817 (+3%) realized +$817 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$466per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days+$176
14 days+$176
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$518
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +66.5% +50.7% 100% 100% +50.7%
≤30d 2 +66.5% +50.7% 100% 100% +50.7%
≤90d 2 +66.5% +50.7% 100% 100% +50.7%
all 52 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 44% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 44% -7.6%
10% -21.6% 38% -16.4%
15% -29.2% 35% -24.5%
20% -36.1% 29% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$201 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$817
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage244d
Avg bet$466
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $132 +$75 +57%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $132 +$100 +76%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $2,510 −$65 -3%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $518 −$518 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $396 −$396 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $475 +$138 +29%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $220 −$20 -9%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 06 $156 −$156 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 06 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 06 $276 −$276 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $2,900 +$26 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 01 $100 +$156 +156%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $137 +$154 +113%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $366 +$471 +129%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $300 +$366 +122%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 30 $2,122 +$402 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 30 $199 −$199 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Oct 30 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Oct 29 $2,100 +$85 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 28 $60 +$137 +228%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $600 +$250 +42%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $200 +$208 +104%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $189 +$215 +114%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Oct 25 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 25 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $480 +$209 +43%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $900 +$480 +53%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Oct 23 $100 +$191 +191%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Oct 22 $260 +$455 +175%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 22 $856 +$204 +24%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Oct 20 $839 +$17 +2%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Oct 19 $254 +$149 +59%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 18 $601 +$89 +15%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 18 $803 −$803 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 18 $614 +$227 +37%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) Oct 17 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO1) Oct 17 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 16 $192 +$234 +122%
LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) Oct 16 $735 +$64 +9%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) Oct 15 $645 +$89 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $132 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $132 24h
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL Japan 75¢ $327 143d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL Japan 75¢ $2,118 143d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 77¢ $2,510 143d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $518 219d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $396 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 99¢ $361 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 55¢ $200 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 49¢ $252 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 53¢ $275 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 99¢ $495 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 7¢ $20 219d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 40¢ $200 219d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 37¢ $150 226d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 4¢ $33 226d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 39¢ $117 226d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 36¢ $126 226d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $2,927 227d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 99¢ $2,900 227d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $156 227d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $256 227d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 39¢ $100 227d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 31¢ $91 227d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster 68¢ $291 227d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 32¢ $137 227d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $832 228d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) SELL T1 35¢ $5 228d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 40¢ $66 228d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records