Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5e4…2c05 sports 286 markets active 0h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$713 (+1%) realized +$755 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate85%241W / 44L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$496est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$55
14 days−$587
30 days−$1,830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$312
other 0% −$94
politics 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 48% -10.0%
≤30d 100 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 50% -11.7%
≤90d 284 -0.6% -10.1% 85% 50% -8.9%
all 285 -0.5% -10.0% 85% 50% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 50% -8.9%
10% -18.6% 18% -17.6%
15% -26.5% 5% -25.6%
20% -33.7% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$601) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$314 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$755
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses241 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$496
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage598d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 91¢ 69¢ $179 $136 −$42 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $441 +$22 +5%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $412 +$63 +15%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $381 +$32 +8%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $363 +$23 +6%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $265 +$100 +38%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $392 −$391 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $601 +$33 +6%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $600 +$11 +2%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $301 +$19 +6%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $500 +$9 +2%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $302 +$60 +20%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $303 +$138 +46%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $368 +$18 +5%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $332 +$35 +11%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $301 +$33 +11%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $373 −$370 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $302 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $401 +$52 +13%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $193 +$31 +16%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $401 +$47 +12%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $501 +$36 +7%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $451 +$48 +11%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $353 +$62 +18%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $240 +$41 +17%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $292 +$61 +21%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $271 +$22 +8%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $265 +$9 +4%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $221 +$42 +19%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $210 +$6 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $150 +$68 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $140 +$9 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $130 +$5 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $126 +$9 +7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $109 +$16 +14%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $96 +$14 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $130 +$14 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $115 +$14 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $801 −$679 -85%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $501 −$500 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $302 +$68 +23%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $301 +$36 +12%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $803 +$101 +12%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $906 −$900 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $545 +$130 +24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $605 +$208 +34%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $604 +$162 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $301 +$55 +18%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $605 +$214 +35%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $300 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 91¢ $179 25m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $462 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 95¢ $441 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $475 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 86¢ $412 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $413 5h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 92¢ $381 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 94¢ $363 21h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $365 22h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 72¢ $265 22h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 91¢ $91 23h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 94¢ $301 23h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $634 24h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 95¢ $300 25h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 94¢ $301 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $612 45h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 98¢ $600 45h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $319 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 94¢ $301 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $8 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $502 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 98¢ $500 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $361 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 83¢ $302 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $441 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 68¢ $303 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $386 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 95¢ $368 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $367 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 90¢ $332 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.49 · official $159.10 · 711 history records