Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5e0…3b13 crypto 326 markets active 6d ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-2%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%154W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day144.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$192
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$181
sports 3% −$11
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 50% -13.5%
≤30d 326 -17.2% -25.1% 47% 38% -16.0%
≤90d 326 -17.2% -25.1% 47% 38% -16.0%
all 326 -17.2% -25.1% 47% 38% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 38% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 32% -24.0%
15% -38.8% 23% -31.4%
20% -44.8% 15% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses154 / 172
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)326 / 326
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day144.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 326 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1345 history records