Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5db…0716 sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,819 (-8%) realized −$1,486 · open −$333
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%42W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$443est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$547
14 days−$547
30 days−$1,566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,500
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -31.8% -38.3% 27% 27% -29.5%
≤30d 52 -9.6% -18.2% 33% 31% -20.4%
≤90d 96 -8.1% -16.9% 38% 36% -22.0%
all 103 -3.6% -12.8% 41% 39% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 39% -17.7%
10% -21.2% 37% -25.5%
15% -28.8% 36% -32.7%
20% -35.8% 33% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$160 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,486
Unrealized−$333
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses42 / 61
Est. fees paid−$443
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage129d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 16¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $475 −$205 -43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $619 −$115 -19%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $109 −$108 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $267 +$57 +21%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $123 −$120 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $317 +$330 +104%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$46 +46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $205 −$28 -14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 −$2 -2%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $208 −$205 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $305 +$434 +142%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $182 −$30 -17%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $205 −$186 -91%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $201 −$4 -2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $380 −$205 -54%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $203 +$127 +63%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $189 +$293 +155%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 31 $202 −$199 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $202 −$82 -41%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 31 $19 −$18 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $13 +$37 +278%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $202 +$228 +113%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $100 +$70 +70%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $136 +$136 +100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 30 $302 +$215 +71%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $322 −$124 -39%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 30 $511 +$166 +32%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 30 $131 −$128 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 30 $108 −$105 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $100 +$808 +807%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $1,058 −$613 -58%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $54 −$44 -82%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $295 −$292 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $102 −$99 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $203 +$213 +105%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 29 $331 −$259 -78%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 29 $102 −$99 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $402 +$5 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $143 −$140 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $314 −$206 -66%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 28 $222 +$306 +138%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $317 −$80 -25%
First Blood in Game 1? May 27 $0 $0 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $105 −$100 -95%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $442 −$340 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 8¢ $93 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 8¢ $8 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 8¢ $0 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $102 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $102 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 1¢ $0 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 1¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $100 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $0 2h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 1¢ $34 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 26¢ $51 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 24¢ $43 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 13¢ $19 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 13¢ $82 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 11¢ $1 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 11¢ $2 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 11¢ $2 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 8¢ $1 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 8¢ $2 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 8¢ $1 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 17¢ $72 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 17¢ $9 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 18¢ $4 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 18¢ $15 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 15¢ $1 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 15¢ $1 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 15¢ $1 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL RED Canids 15¢ $16 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 14¢ $58 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 9¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.27 · official $1.27 (match) · 612 history records