Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5da…3557 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$132 (-0%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%27W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$694per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$56
other 40% −$105
sports 11% +$44
world 3% −$30
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -15.2% -23.3% 9% 1% -10.0%
all 128 -4.2% -13.3% 21% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 7% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 7% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 7% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$976) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$8 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$648
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses27 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage132d
Avg bet$694
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $648 $648 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $807 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $752 +$2 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $673 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 03 $234 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 03 $366 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,187 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,732 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $302 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,534 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,787 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,847 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $871 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $874 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 02 $511 +$2 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $325 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,375 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,463 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $934 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $995 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,387 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,852 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $648 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $806 2h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $807 4h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $226 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $226 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $230 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $231 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $752 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $839 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $840 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $591 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $592 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $449 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $449 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $718 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $719 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $711 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $712 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $298 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $298 18d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $320 20d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $320 20d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $302 21d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $302 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $647.55 · official $647.55 (match) · 383 history records