Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5d9…9872 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$2
politics 11% −$9
economics 5% −$2
sports 3% +$65
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 +6.2% -3.9% 12% 11% -9.4%
all 104 +6.2% -3.9% 12% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 11% -9.4%
10% -13.1% 11% -18.1%
15% -21.5% 10% -26.0%
20% -29.2% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$562) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×12.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage88d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $136 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $373 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $66 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $410 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $735 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $422 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $153 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $318 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $690 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $336 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $920 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $337 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 13 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $320 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $335 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $960 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $334 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $327 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $676 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $329 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $351 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $946 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $358 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 25 $354 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $988 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $366 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $348 −$5 -1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $349 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $355 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $362 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 9h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 24h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 29h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 43h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 45h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $66 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $66 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $136 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 6d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 14d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 16d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $75 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $76 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $48 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.90 · official $143.90 (match) · 334 history records