Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5d8…a324 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$4
other 37% −$4
politics 6% +$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.6% +0.1% 50% 33% -8.2%
≤30d 19 +1.7% -8.0% 37% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 19 +1.7% -8.0% 37% 11% -9.0%
all 48 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -9.4%
10% -19.2% 4% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 4% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage477d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +11%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $23 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +54%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $115 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $43 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $21 +$2 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $11 −$3 -24%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $49 +$2 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jul 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 03 $15 −$2 -16%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $16 $0 -2%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 08 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 07 $1 $0 +40%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $2 $0 -20%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025? Mar 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $17 $0 -0%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 21 $16 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 30h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 38h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $23 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $26 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $11 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $50 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $1 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $31 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $36 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $40 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $35 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $43 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.38 · official $32.38 (match) · 141 history records