Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5d7…6910 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$225 (-13%) realized −$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day67.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$337
other 12% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 38% -23.7%
≤30d 16 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 38% -23.7%
≤90d 16 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 38% -23.7%
all 16 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 38% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 38% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 19% -31.0%
15% -30.1% 6% -37.6%
20% -36.9% 0% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$58 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day67.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $114 −$22 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $84 −$33 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $540 −$276 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $403 +$33 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$11 +42%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $200 +$68 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records