Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5d6…8267 sports 432 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$258 (-1%) realized −$254 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%254W / 176L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$414est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$357
7 days+$334
14 days+$263
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$923
other 11% +$18
crypto 1% +$241
world 0% −$64
politics 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +45.1% +31.3% 62% 62% +8.5%
≤30d 116 +16.4% +5.3% 59% 58% -7.8%
≤90d 430 +4.8% -5.2% 59% 55% -11.3%
all 430 +4.8% -5.2% 59% 55% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 55% -11.3%
10% -14.3% 46% -19.8%
15% -22.6% 40% -27.6%
20% -30.2% 31% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$68 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$254
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses254 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$414
Open positions2
Markets (closed)430 / 432
History coverage77d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 56¢ 46¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 62¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$32 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$67 +165%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +132%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $56 +$35 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$30 +119%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $56 +$32 +57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 +$33 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 +$52 +291%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $23 +$84 +365%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$20 +197%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$187 +365%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$38 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$7 -72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $87 +$136 +157%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$25 +62%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 +$50 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $59 +$13 +21%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $58 +$43 +73%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $102 −$54 -52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$39 +76%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$47 +93%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $192 +$93 +49%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 04 $206 −$206 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $26 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $41 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 46¢ $20 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 65¢ $20 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $25 31h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $56 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $36 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 34h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $56 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 21¢ $23 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $10 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $18 39h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $61 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $102 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $120 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 83¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.23 · official $62.23 (match) · 1031 history records