Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:05:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5d6…7a7c other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$167 (+5%) realized +$169 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate79%27W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$63
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$51
world 13% +$51
politics 4% +$31
tech 3% +$6
economics 2% +$2
finance 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +9.0% -1.4% 71% 64% -6.3%
≤30d 17 +7.8% -2.5% 71% 53% -6.4%
≤90d 25 +2.0% -7.7% 72% 44% -4.7%
all 34 +4.5% -5.5% 79% 44% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 44% -4.5%
10% -14.5% 32% -13.6%
15% -22.8% 26% -22.0%
20% -30.3% 21% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$77 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$169
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses27 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage563d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$29 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $120 +$14 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $151 +$44 +29%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $383 −$381 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$104 +69%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $153 +$126 +83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $139 +$4 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $133 +$6 +4%
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Jun 14 $58 −$1 -1%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $70 +$4 +6%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 14 $10 −$9 -96%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 03 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 16 $58 +$30 +52%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $77 +$39 +51%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $34 $0 +1%
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%? Apr 01 $40 +$3 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $73 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Feb 28 $34 +$4 +13%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 22 $66 +$2 +3%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 16 $65 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Feb 14 $30 +$4 +14%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 03 $59 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 27? Sep 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Sep 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? May 17 $20 +$7 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 23h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $120 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $383 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $256 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $153 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $143 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $139 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $133 9d
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 86¢ $57 9d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 99¢ $77 9d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $74 33d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 19¢ $10 40d
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 40d
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 95¢ $70 40d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $88 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 65¢ $58 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.33 · official $273.33 (match) · 73 history records