Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5cf…a6c2 crypto 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$28 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate82%73W / 16L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$27
other 8% −$7
politics 4% +$1
tech 0% +$6
finance 0% −$8
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 37 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 3% -9.4%
all 89 -10.4% -18.9% 82% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 17% -9.4%
10% -26.7% 10% -18.1%
15% -33.8% 7% -26.0%
20% -40.2% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$606
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses73 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)89 / 97
History coverage233d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 99¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 28¢ $5 $2 −$4 (-65%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 19 $470 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 10 $550 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Citrea FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? Jun 07 $529 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? May 27 $500 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 26 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 19? May 20 $555 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 11-17? May 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 11-17? May 19 $300 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 4-10? May 16 $612 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3? May 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? May 10 $311 $0 +0%
Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 03 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 03 $589 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 23? Apr 26 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 26 $397 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 18? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 April 13-19? Apr 23 $487 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 13? Apr 18 $586 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 10? Apr 13 $595 +$1 +0%
Will StandX launch a token by March 31? Apr 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 11 $593 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 19? Mar 25 $592 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on March 14? Mar 19 $191 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 9-15? Mar 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 9-15? Mar 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 15 $587 +$4 +1%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Mar 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Feb 05 $563 +$1 +0%
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? Feb 05 $5 $0 +6%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of January 19 above $210? Feb 05 $10 $0 +0%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 05 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? Feb 05 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $470 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $550 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $529 22d
Citrea FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $500 24d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? SELL No 100¢ $500 24d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $10 28d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 29d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $500 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $555 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $300 34d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $200 34d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 4-10? BUY No 100¢ $612 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? BUY No 100¢ $191 47d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3? BUY No 100¢ $300 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? BUY No 100¢ $120 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.69 · official $605.69 (match) · 199 history records