Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd5cb…4ec1 other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$259 (+0%) realized +$259 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate90%94W / 10L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$526per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$1
other 31% +$228
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$3
sports 0% +$33
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 104 -0.7% -10.1% 90% 14% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 14% -9.1%
10% -18.7% 9% -17.8%
15% -26.6% 7% -25.7%
20% -33.8% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.89 per $1 lost it wins $5.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses94 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage692d
Avg bet$526
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $120 in April? May 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of February? Mar 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will Netflix reach $228 in February? Mar 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Meta reach $880 in January? Feb 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of January? Feb 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the February meeting? Feb 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of January? Feb 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in January? Feb 22 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January? Feb 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 22 $19 $0 +0%
Maduro receives asylum by December 31? Jan 21 $5 $0 +5%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? Jan 21 $9 +$1 +9%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? Jan 21 $11 $0 +0%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Jan 21 $12 $0 +1%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31? Jan 21 $14 $0 +0%
US forces in Iran in 2025? Jan 21 $16 $0 +0%
Le Pen sentence reduced in 2025? Jan 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025? Jan 21 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5) Dec 17 $8 +$3 +39%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 1.5 Dec 17 $15 +$2 +11%
FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 Dec 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-06? Dec 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München end in a draw? Dec 17 $15 +$3 +22%
Will FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw? Dec 17 $15 +$4 +30%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-12-06? Dec 17 $15 +$8 +54%
Spread: Bayern München (-1.5) Dec 17 $13 +$17 +133%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Apple reach $352 in November? Dec 06 $51 $0 +1%
Will Rocket Lab reach $98 in November? Dec 06 $52 $0 +1%
Will Pascal Affi N'Guessan win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential elect Nov 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Nov 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-09-17? Oct 23 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Alanyaspor win on 2025-09-17? Oct 23 $28 +$2 +9%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Sep 17 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 12 $141 $0 +0%
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jul 13 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $153 $0 +0%
Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian ele May 14 $129 +$1 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in March? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 by February 28 2025? Mar 18 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Feb 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Feb 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ivana Kekin be the next President of Croatia? Feb 13 $144 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by BUY No 100¢ $104 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $104 24d
Will NVIDIA dip to $120 in April? BUY No 100¢ $104 61d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $104 88d
Will Netflix reach $228 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 120d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of February? BUY No 99¢ $29 120d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $30 120d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the February meeting? BUY No 100¢ $12 151d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of January? BUY No 100¢ $10 151d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 151d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $14 151d
Will Meta reach $880 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 151d
Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in January? BUY No 95¢ $14 151d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 151d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January? BUY No 99¢ $17 151d
Le Pen sentence reduced in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $19 187d
US forces in Iran in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $16 187d
Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 187d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $11 187d
Maduro receives asylum by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $5 187d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? BUY No 99¢ $12 187d
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 187d
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $9 187d
FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $15 198d
Spread: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5) BUY FC Augsburg 72¢ $8 198d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-06? BUY No 77¢ $15 198d
Will FC Augsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $15 198d
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-12-06? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 198d
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $15 198d
Spread: Bayern München (-1.5) BUY Bayern München 43¢ $13 198d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.96 · official $103.96 (match) · 253 history records