Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5cb…4506 world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%16W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
other 25% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 15% −$14
economics 4% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 60 -2.1% -11.4% 27% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)60 / 64
History coverage491d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 58¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $38 −$2 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $89 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $29 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $63 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $62 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $62 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $98 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $3 $0 -12%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $7 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $66 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $63 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $23 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $7 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $30 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $11 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $18 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $30 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $33 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $33 22h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $29 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $28 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 8¢ $6 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $4 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $1 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 11¢ $4 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $28 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.94 · official $32.22 (match) · 282 history records