Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5c7…73ec sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$335 (+8%) realized +$335 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$850now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$7
other 22% −$2
sports 14% +$342
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 34 +5.0% -5.0% 35% 35% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 35% +0.2%
10% -14.1% 35% -9.4%
15% -22.4% 35% -18.1%
20% -30.0% 32% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$4 · ×8.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.58 per $1 lost it wins $4.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$850
Realized+$335
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage572d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $350 $350 −$0 (-0%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $290 $290 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $210 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $330 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $410 −$1 -0%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Oct 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Kraken vs. Flyers Oct 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 20 $16 +$19 +122%
Lions vs. Chiefs Oct 16 $10 +$7 +72%
Rays vs. Orioles Sep 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Braves vs. Nationals Sep 23 $3 +$2 +70%
Pirates vs. Orioles Sep 15 $3 +$2 +75%
TCU vs. North Carolina Sep 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 26 $43 +$31 +72%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 20 $28 +$14 +49%
Twins vs. Tigers Aug 12 $5 +$3 +61%
Twins vs. Yankees Aug 12 $12 +$7 +56%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jul 31 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 09 $5 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Feb 07 $103 +$112 +109%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 06 $112 +$104 +92%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Feb 05 $103 +$121 +117%
Hawks vs. Bulls Nov 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $210 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $350 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $290 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $290 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $340 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $340 23h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 23h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $290 23h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $210 23h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $310 23h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $330 23h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $210 27h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $330 27h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $310 27h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 27h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 27h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $409 27h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 33h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $410 33h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 33h
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 44¢ $13 229d
Kraken vs. Flyers BUY Kraken 46¢ $24 240d
Blue Jays vs. Mariners BUY Blue Jays 45¢ $16 244d
Lions vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 58¢ $10 247d
Rays vs. Orioles BUY Rays 52¢ $9 267d
Braves vs. Nationals BUY Braves 59¢ $3 275d
Pirates vs. Orioles BUY Orioles 57¢ $3 279d
TCU vs. North Carolina BUY North Carolina 39¢ $2 289d
Falcons vs. Cowboys BUY Cowboys 58¢ $43 299d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $849.57 · official $849.57 (match) · 68 history records