Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5c2…f566 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$56 (+11%) realized +$57 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day165.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$18
other 1% −$3
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -15.1% -23.2% 24% 19% -13.0%
≤30d 37 -15.1% -23.2% 24% 19% -13.0%
≤90d 37 -15.1% -23.2% 24% 19% -13.0%
all 37 -15.1% -23.2% 24% 19% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 19% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 16% -21.3%
15% -37.2% 14% -28.9%
20% -43.4% 14% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$10 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day165.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$12 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$5 -44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$22 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$16 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$75 +1012%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$12 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$63 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$26 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $74 −$37 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$84 +526%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 32m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $1.44 (match) · 180 history records