trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $2,860 | $2,695 | −$165 (-6%) |
| Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $750 | +$250 (+50%) |
| Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $250 | −$250 (-50%) |
| Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $250 | −$250 (-50%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $250 | −$250 (-50%) |
| Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $300 | $150 | −$150 (-50%) |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $300 | $150 | −$150 (-50%) |
| Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $300 | $150 | −$150 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $927 | −$54 | -6% |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $1,236 | −$265 | -22% |
| Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $1,030 | −$60 | -6% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $2,059 | −$215 | -10% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $1,853 | +$185 | +10% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 20% | 0% | -14.7% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 20% | 0% | -14.7% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 20% | 0% | -14.7% |
| all | 5 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 20% | 0% | -14.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.6% | 0% | -14.7% |
| 10% | -23.7% | 0% | -22.9% |
| 15% | -31.0% | 0% | -30.3% |
| 20% | -37.8% | 0% | -37.2% |