Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5bf…5124 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate47%46W / 52L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$13
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$7
other 19% +$18
sports 16% −$2
politics 13% −$1
economics 8% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 57% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 25 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 37 +0.1% -9.4% 35% 0% -9.4%
all 98 +2.0% -7.7% 47% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 5% -9.3%
10% -16.5% 4% -18.0%
15% -24.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.0% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses46 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage474d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $178 $178 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $163 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $506 +$12 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $139 +$4 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $159 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $591 +$3 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $264 −$16 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $180 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $302 +$7 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $67 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $170 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $17 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $13 −$1 -9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $155 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $170 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $157 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $282 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $332 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $168 +$7 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $168 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $152 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 23 $746 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 27 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $188 −$2 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $941 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $950 −$11 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $950 +$1 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $951 $0 +0%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Dec 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $7 $0 +3%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $9 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jun 10 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $178 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $11 25h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $100 25h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $111 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $149 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $14 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $18 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $93 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $52 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $178 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $178 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $144 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $139 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $18 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $162 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $162 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $67 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $95 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $159 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $145 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $145 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $84 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $76 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $160 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.31 · official $178.30 (match) · 344 history records