Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D5 0xd5bb…a007 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-20%) realized −$21 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$41
other 43% −$40
crypto 10% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.0% +6.8% 100% 100% +6.8%
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 50% -4.6%
≤90d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 50% -4.6%
all 4 +7.5% -2.7% 50% 50% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 50% -2.0%
10% -12.0% 25% -11.4%
15% -20.5% 25% -19.9%
20% -28.3% 25% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage99d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $38 $24 −$14 (-37%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $24 $17 −$7 (-28%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $16 $7 −$8 (-52%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $35 +$6 +18%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $17 −$3 -20%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $10 +$13 +132%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 22 $162 −$41 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.24 · official $68.25 (match) · 38 history records