Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd5ba…1259
sports · 69 markets active 5h ago
3.5score
+$70 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$70 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 48
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$521
14 days−$406
30 days−$400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims) Mullarkey 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Connecticut Huskies 23¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Kings vs. Pistons Kings 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 34¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Tuivasa 28¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Suns 26¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 38¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 28¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 4¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Lopes 41¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 10¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $68 −$66 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $564 +$16 +3%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $40 −$39 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $390 −$3 -1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $152 −$149 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $210 −$206 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $197 +$214 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 29 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 29 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +74%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 24 $42 +$207 +491%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 24 $26 +$126 +478%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 24 $10 +$17 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +39%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $207 +$40 +19%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $44 −$43 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $34 −$33 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 12 $51 +$77 +152%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $26 +$106 +414%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $36 −$35 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $43 +$102 +238%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $61 −$60 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $42 +$66 +158%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $414 +$590 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% +$215
crypto 8% +$179
other 7% −$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 10¢ $68 5h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 26¢ $55 27h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 27¢ $53 27h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $51 27h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 87¢ $1 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $472 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 88¢ $1 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $103 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $103 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $306 29h
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $50 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 10¢ $14 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 8¢ $26 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $3 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 98¢ $1,059 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 34¢ $56 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 33¢ $26 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 33¢ $51 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 33¢ $51 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 37¢ $204 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 1¢ $26 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 37¢ $51 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $75 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 4¢ $26 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 7¢ $6 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $51 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $76 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 35¢ $76 6d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 96¢ $411 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 48¢ $95 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -87.1% -88.4% 12% 0% -52.3%
≤30d 40 -25.0% -32.1% 30% 28% -26.1%
≤90d 56 +9.4% -1.0% 34% 32% +6.5%
all 69 +6.0% -4.1% 30% 29% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 29% -7.4%
10% -13.3% 28% -16.3%
15% -21.7% 28% -24.4%
20% -29.3% 26% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records