Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd5b9…cd0f
crypto · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage52d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$34
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? No 74¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? No 64¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 25, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? No 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? No 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down on May 29? Down 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
GPT-5.5 released by April 21, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $19 −$7 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$17 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $45 −$3 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 04 $9 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$49 +4900%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 7? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$3 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $13 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $5 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? May 29 $4 $0 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? May 29 $3 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? May 28 $13 −$4 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $3 +$2 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 23 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? May 05 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $4 −$2 -56%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 25, 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -96%
GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 26, 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -96%
GPT-5.5 released by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$2
tech 5% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 59¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 59¢ $3 44m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 67¢ $3 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $4 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 69¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 69¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 32¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 32¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -38.3% -44.1% 30% 0% -25.0%
≤30d 30 +36.7% +23.7% 37% 13% -16.8%
≤90d 40 +10.5% +0.0% 30% 12% -21.0%
all 40 +10.5% +0.0% 30% 12% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 12% -21.0%
10% -9.6% 10% -28.6%
15% -18.3% 5% -35.5%
20% -26.3% 5% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.93 · official $12.93 (match) · 154 history records