Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D5 0xd5b3…3bae other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip

Net edge-72%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-69.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-66.4%	-69.6%	25%	25%	-20.0%
≤30d	4	-66.4%	-69.6%	25%	25%	-20.0%
≤90d	4	-66.4%	-69.6%	25%	25%	-20.0%
all	4	-66.4%	-69.6%	25%	25%	-20.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-69.6%	25%	-20.0%
10%	-72.5%	25%	-27.6%
15%	-75.2%	0%	-34.6%
20%	-77.6%	0%	-41.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -66% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$16 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots	Jun 29	$20	−$19	-96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$105	+$31	+30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$10	−$10	-97%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 29	$20	−$20	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$10	1h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$44	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	98¢	$43	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	56¢	$49	7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	11h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	54¢	$20	11h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$24	13h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.84 · official $9.84 (match) · 14 history records