Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:55:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D5 0xd5b1…1b71 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$8,605 (-29%) realized −$8,360 · open −$245

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%14W / 14L

Whale WR29%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$981per market

Trades / day10.5pace

Fees−$467est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-8.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+1.7%	-8.0%	50%	50%	-37.8%
≤30d	28	+1.7%	-8.0%	50%	50%	-37.8%
≤90d	28	+1.7%	-8.0%	50%	50%	-37.8%
all	28	+1.7%	-8.0%	50%	50%	-37.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.5 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.0%	50%	-37.8%
10% ← realistic here	-16.8%	46%	-43.8%
15%	-24.8%	46%	-49.2%
20%	-32.2%	32%	-54.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 29% (≥$1,507) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +14% → late -10% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$539 vs −$1,164 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized−$8,360

Unrealized−$245

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses14 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)29%

Est. fees paid−$467

Open positions2

Markets (closed)28 / 30

History coverage5d

Avg bet$981

Trades / day10.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner	MOUZ	85¢	100¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+18%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner	Inner Circle	36¢	0¢	$246	$0	−$246 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner	Jun 23	$600	−$589	-98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner	Jun 23	$350	+$500	+143%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner	Jun 23	$92	−$89	-97%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q	Jun 23	$250	+$326	+130%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner	Jun 23	$673	+$115	+17%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner	Jun 23	$250	+$102	+41%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner	Jun 23	$250	−$244	-98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner	Jun 23	$497	−$487	-98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	Jun 23	$333	+$368	+110%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner	Jun 23	$199	+$429	+216%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	Jun 23	$278	−$275	-99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed	Jun 22	$302	−$297	-98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner	Jun 22	$1,292	−$579	-45%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner	Jun 22	$1,692	−$1,675	-99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	Jun 22	$566	+$780	+138%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner	Jun 22	$700	−$690	-98%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner	Jun 22	$381	+$743	+195%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner	Jun 22	$553	+$958	+173%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	Jun 22	$360	+$193	+54%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$1,507	−$849	-56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$2,684	−$2,615	-97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 21	$3,461	−$3,395	-98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 21	$3,697	−$3,638	-98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner	Jun 21	$3,369	+$1,236	+37%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner	Jun 21	$1,790	+$666	+37%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner	Jun 21	$1,009	+$779	+77%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$893	−$876	-98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner	Jun 19	$958	+$348	+36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner	SELL MOUZ	98¢	$226	8m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner	BUY MOUZ	85¢	$200	23m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner	BUY Inner Circle	36¢	$252	1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	56¢	$600	15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner	SELL Nigma Galaxy	100¢	$850	15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner	BUY Nigma Galaxy	40¢	$350	16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner	BUY Enjoy	9¢	$92	17h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q	SELL MODUS	100¢	$5	17h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner	SELL Team Spirit	100¢	$787	17h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner	BUY Team Spirit	84¢	$673	19h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q	SELL MODUS	99¢	$570	19h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q	BUY MODUS	42¢	$250	20h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner	SELL OG	99¢	$352	21h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner	BUY OG	69¢	$250	22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner	BUY MODUS	30¢	$250	22h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner	BUY Grind Back	46¢	$497	23h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	SELL Grind Back	100¢	$702	25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	BUY Grind Back	47¢	$333	26h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner	SELL Grind Back	100¢	$628	27h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner	BUY Grind Back	31¢	$199	28h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner	BUY REKONIX	65¢	$278	29h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed	BUY REKONIX	38¢	$302	45h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner	BUY OG	31¢	$591	46h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner	BUY Virtus.pro	37¢	$396	46h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner	BUY Virtus.pro	74¢	$1,296	47h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	SELL Yellow Submarine	100¢	$1,345	47h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner	SELL REKONIX	46¢	$652	2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner	BUY REKONIX	50¢	$700	2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner	BUY REKONIX	48¢	$701	2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	BUY Yellow Submarine	41¢	$566	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.22 · official $2.22 (match) · 55 history records