trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 71¢ | 72¢ | $14 | $14 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 68¢ | 66¢ | $14 | $13 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $11 | $10 | −$1 (-10%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-6%) |
| SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? | Yes | 30¢ | 14¢ | $3 | $1 | −$2 (-53%) |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $61 | $0 | −$61 (-100%) |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $21 | $0 | −$21 (-100%) |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $46 | $0 | −$46 (-100%) |
| Games Total: O/U 3.5 | Over | 38¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games Total: O/U 3.5 | Jun 03 | $8 | −$8 | -98% |
| Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? | May 31 | $50 | +$38 | +75% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $46 | −$46 | -100% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners | May 30 | $38 | −$19 | -52% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $62 | −$61 | -98% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $21 | −$21 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | -62.7% | -66.3% | 17% | 17% | -56.8% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -62.7% | -66.3% | 17% | 17% | -56.8% |
| all | 6 | -62.7% | -66.3% | 17% | 17% | -56.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -66.3% | 17% | -56.8% |
| 10% | -69.5% | 17% | -61.0% |
| 15% | -72.5% | 17% | -64.7% |
| 20% | -75.2% | 17% | -68.2% |