Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd5b0…c344 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$168 (-6%) realized −$167 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$202
14 days−$202
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$293
sports 7% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +3.2% -6.6% 60% 52% -17.9%
≤30d 40 +19.9% +8.5% 55% 50% -15.9%
≤90d 40 +19.9% +8.5% 55% 50% -15.9%
all 40 +19.9% +8.5% 55% 50% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 50% -15.9%
10% -1.9% 40% -24.0%
15% -11.4% 40% -31.3%
20% -20.1% 22% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$50 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage13d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $117 $116 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$17 +83%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $61 +$36 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $110 +$41 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$25 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $186 −$185 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $108 −$106 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$14 -67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$57 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $299 +$29 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $230 +$95 +41%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 +$20 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $141 +$63 +45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$78 -78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $231 +$30 +13%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$10 +982%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 +$72 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$33 +47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$7 +19%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$3 -83%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $191 +$91 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +307%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 93¢ $113 31m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 91¢ $110 32m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $118 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $85 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $108 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $110 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $191 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $131 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.82 · official $175.82 (match) · 78 history records