Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd5ac…0510 crypto 365 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$864 (-4%) realized −$864 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate85%311W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days−$273
14 days−$232
30 days−$688
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$496
other 26% +$93
crypto 7% −$505
world 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -2.3% -11.6% 96% 2% -12.4%
≤30d 141 -2.8% -12.1% 95% 2% -13.4%
≤90d 365 +7.5% -2.8% 85% 22% -13.3%
all 365 +7.5% -2.8% 85% 22% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 22% -13.3%
10% -12.1% 18% -21.6%
15% -20.6% 15% -29.2%
20% -28.4% 13% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$30 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$864
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses311 / 54
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)365 / 365
History coverage46d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 365 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $103 +$3 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $404 +$12 +3%
Raquillet vs. Manas: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Set Handicap: Olmo (-1.5) vs You (+1.5) Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Fuente vs. Santos: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $37 $0 +1%
Olmo vs. You: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Kym vs. Kokkinakis: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $193 +$2 +1%
Set Handicap: Kym (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5) Jun 16 $337 +$1 +0%
Henning vs. Lee: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Philip Henning vs. Gerard Campana Lee: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ravel vs. Blancaneaux: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $78 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 16 $322 +$7 +2%
Tomic vs. Gannon: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $193 +$2 +1%
Set Handicap: Bondioli (-1.5) vs Meza (+1.5) Jun 16 $63 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Meza (-1.5) vs Bondioli (+1.5) Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Daniel Jade vs. Michael Zhu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Jade vs. Zhu: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Galan (-1.5) vs Piros (+1.5) Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Piros (-1.5) vs Galan (+1.5) Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $508 +$5 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $481 +$25 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $478 +$5 +1%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $460 +$19 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $334 +$10 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $109 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $37 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $337 $0 +0%
Majchrzak vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $104 −$103 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 100.5 Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $444 −$345 -78%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $347 +$2 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $54 +$1 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $278 +$3 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $54 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $199 +$1 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $393 +$42 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Iceland? Jun 10 $380 +$13 +3%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $201 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $404 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 99¢ $55 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $21 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 94¢ $47 1h
Fuente vs. Santos: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $37 3h
Raquillet vs. Manas: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 3h
Olmo vs. You: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 3h
Set Handicap: Olmo (-1.5) vs You (+1.5) BUY You 99¢ $99 3h
Set Handicap: Kym (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5) BUY Kokkinakis 100¢ $237 4h
Set Handicap: Kym (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5) BUY Kokkinakis 100¢ $100 4h
Kym vs. Kokkinakis: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $193 4h
Philip Henning vs. Gerard Campana Lee: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $198 6h
Henning vs. Lee: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 6h
Ravel vs. Blancaneaux: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $78 7h
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Mannarino 98¢ $225 8h
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Mannarino 97¢ $97 8h
Tomic vs. Gannon: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 99¢ $193 8h
Daniel Jade vs. Michael Zhu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $60 10h
Jade vs. Zhu: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $198 10h
Set Handicap: Bondioli (-1.5) vs Meza (+1.5) BUY Meza 100¢ $63 10h
Set Handicap: Meza (-1.5) vs Bondioli (+1.5) BUY Bondioli 100¢ $64 10h
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $64 10h
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $64 10h
Set Handicap: Piros (-1.5) vs Galan (+1.5) BUY Galan 100¢ $100 11h
Set Handicap: Galan (-1.5) vs Piros (+1.5) BUY Piros 100¢ $100 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $253 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $87 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $158 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1132 history records