Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5aa…c042 sports 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%29W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$5
politics 25% −$13
other 23% −$8
crypto 9% −$4
culture 4% −$2
world 4% −$9
economics 4% −$2
finance 3% $0
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 22 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 59 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 162 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses29 / 133
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage160d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $300 −$3 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $201 +$1 +0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 25 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 25 $63 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $63 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 25 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $101 −$2 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 23 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $225 −$2 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 22 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $725 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 21 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $133 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 19 $63 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 18 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $97 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 17 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 15 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $289 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 13 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $436 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $41 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 12 $42 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $266 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 08 $50 −$5 -9%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $279 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $263 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 07 $38 +$1 +1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $42 7d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 7d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 7d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $62 15d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $62 15d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $59 23d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $57 23d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $61 23d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $63 23d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $56 23d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $56 24d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $63 24d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $63 24d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $62 24d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $63 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 95¢ $46 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $47 24d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 24d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 25d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $55 25d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $56 25d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $61 25d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $62 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 99¢ $57 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 97¢ $57 25d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $47 26d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 95¢ $47 26d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $56 26d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $56 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.25 · official $42.25 (match) · 742 history records