Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5aa…597c world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$10
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$8
politics 22% +$1
other 15% +$3
sports 11% −$13
economics 7% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.2% -7.6% 56% 11% -7.8%
≤30d 26 +0.9% -8.8% 54% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 68 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 1% -9.3%
all 69 -3.1% -12.4% 38% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 1% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 43
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage482d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 49¢ 52¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $70 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $112 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $48 +$5 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $84 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $84 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $58 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $75 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $67 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $95 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $19 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $53 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $41 +$3 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $26 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $26 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $83 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $34 −$3 -9%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $17 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $144 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $24 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $92 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Mesa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $46 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $110 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 49¢ $52 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 27h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $16 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $31 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $49 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $44 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $43 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $48 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $48 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $19 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $15 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $11 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.39 · official $56.17 · 325 history records