Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5a8…f1e0 crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$502 (+12%) realized +$438 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$249
7 days+$405
14 days+$405
30 days+$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$326
other 25% +$470
world 9% −$341
crypto 8% +$30
sports 1% +$23
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.2% -0.3% 53% 53% +30.1%
≤30d 19 +10.2% -0.3% 53% 53% +30.1%
≤90d 19 +10.2% -0.3% 53% 53% +30.1%
all 29 +5.4% -4.7% 55% 52% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 52% +1.4%
10% -13.8% 45% -8.3%
15% -22.1% 34% -17.2%
20% -29.8% 24% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$47 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized+$438
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage369d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $60 $84 +$24 (+40%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 41¢ 80¢ $40 $78 +$38 (+94%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$20 -32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $77 +$223 +291%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 +$189 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$22 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$30 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 19 $1,095 +$419 +38%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 01 $1,222 −$93 -8%
Grok 5 released by December 31? Oct 27 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Oct 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jun 23 $12 +$3 +28%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 23 $285 −$285 -100%
US military action against Iran before August? Jun 22 $40 −$34 -85%
Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 17 at 5 Jun 17 $30 +$47 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 41¢ $41 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 31h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $192 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.84 · official $433.84 (match) · 103 history records