Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5a7…5cbc other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-15%) realized −$8 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$25
politics 10% +$2
sports 6% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.7% -18.3% 57% 57% -20.4%
≤30d 8 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% -19.9%
≤90d 8 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% -19.9%
all 8 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 50% -19.9%
10% -25.1% 38% -27.5%
15% -32.4% 25% -34.5%
20% -39.0% 25% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage13d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $19 $12 −$7 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $22 +$7 +30%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $6 +$7 +118%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $22 4h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $13 5h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 45¢ $6 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 23h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $12 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $5 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $4 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.71 · official $11.71 (match) · 18 history records