Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd5a6…6991
sports · 1300 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11,091 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13,157 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$13,157
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses462 / 837
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,186
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1299 / 1300
History coverage449d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 1299 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$888
14 days−$14,252
30 days−$10,800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 19¢ 6¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$10 +178%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $121 −$100 -83%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $161 +$132 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$40 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$8 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$31 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$23 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$14 -37%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 14 $45 −$22 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $155 −$35 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$22 -52%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 14 $46 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$62 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$75 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$17 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $74 +$156 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $78 +$108 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% −$8,957
crypto 9% −$1,256
other 4% −$2,389
world 0% −$566
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $6 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $293 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $60 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $62 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $121 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $120 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -17.3% -25.2% 32% 29% -21.8%
≤30d 606 -28.2% -35.1% 25% 24% -31.6%
≤90d 782 -19.3% -27.0% 32% 30% -18.1%
all 1299 -16.3% -24.3% 36% 33% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 33% -14.6%
10% -31.6% 28% -22.8%
15% -38.2% 25% -30.2%
20% -44.2% 21% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.26 · official $4.26 (match) · 3500 history records