Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5a1…7fbe weather 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$402 (-16%) realized −$404 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%45W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$64
14 days−$8
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$420
crypto 2% −$25
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -17.1% -25.0% 37% 37% -26.3%
≤30d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 39% -18.9%
≤90d 133 -18.4% -26.2% 34% 30% -25.7%
all 133 -18.4% -26.2% 34% 30% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 30% -25.7%
10% -33.3% 26% -32.8%
15% -39.7% 22% -39.3%
20% -45.6% 19% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$404
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses45 / 88
Open positions4
Markets (closed)133 / 137
History coverage58d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 46¢ 99¢ $14 $30 +$16 (+116%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $18 +$17 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $45 +$34 +76%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $11 +$5 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $22 +$16 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 −$2 -15%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $21 +$13 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$4 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6? Jun 08 $12 −$5 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$11 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $27 +$63 +237%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $43 +$40 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$6 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $70 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $15 −$6 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $22 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $11 +$4 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 +$45 +900%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2? Jun 01 $10 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? Jun 01 $50 +$17 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $13 −$11 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $30 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $12 +$17 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $24 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? May 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 25? May 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? May 26 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 26 $24 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24? May 26 $11 +$12 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 87¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 87¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 87¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 46¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.35 · official $48.41 (match) · 865 history records