Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd594…9d1b
crypto · 312 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$75,994 -57%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$75,959 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$117
Realized−$75,959
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses226 / 366
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)592 / 312
Avg bet$428
Trades / day1308.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 13 History 592 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65,055
7 days−$75,959
14 days−$75,959
30 days−$75,959
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 58¢ 48¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? Yes 90¢ 51¢ $40 $23 −$18 (-43%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 150 and 160? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 60¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Yes 50¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $173 $0 −$173 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $999 $0 −$999 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $999 $0 −$999 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$4 -184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $999 −$728 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $66 −$93 -141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$18 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $372 −$372 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $98 −$132 -134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $661 −$661 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1,888 −$1,888 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $999 −$999 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $441 −$441 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$54 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $999 −$999 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$12,324
weather 0% −$17
other 0% −$24
politics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $17 13m
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 20m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 28m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 30m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 91¢ $14 31m
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 34m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $73 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $24 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $16 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 592 -47.8% -52.8% 38% 29% -44.9%
≤30d 592 -47.8% -52.8% 38% 29% -44.9%
≤90d 592 -47.8% -52.8% 38% 29% -44.9%
all 592 -47.8% -52.8% 38% 29% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1308.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.8% 29% -44.9%
10% ← realistic here -57.3% 15% -50.1%
15% -61.4% 6% -55.0%
20% -65.2% 2% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.58 · official $116.58 (match) · 3500 history records