Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd592…9618 sports 94 markets active 10h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,346 (+15%) realized +$4,763 · open −$417
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%42W / 51L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$366est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$6,581
14 days+$6,348
30 days+$4,197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$4,928
other 4% −$1,149
world 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +20.7% +9.2% 64% 64% +22.8%
≤30d 92 -11.1% -19.6% 46% 46% +4.1%
≤90d 92 -11.1% -19.6% 46% 46% +4.1%
all 93 -12.0% -20.4% 45% 45% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 45% +4.0%
10% -28.0% 42% -6.0%
15% -35.0% 39% -15.1%
20% -41.4% 35% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$327 vs −$188 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized+$4,763
Unrealized−$417
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses42 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$366
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage147d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 43¢ 22¢ $834 $417 −$417 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $278 +$573 +206%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $160 +$119 +74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $235 −$232 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $60 +$75 +126%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $132 −$131 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $99 +$34 +34%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $135 −$133 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $63 +$71 +113%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $642 −$628 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $360 +$285 +79%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $114 −$112 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $45 +$69 +152%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $48 −$2 -5%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $166 +$96 +58%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $160 +$104 +65%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $69 −$67 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $91 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $301 −$297 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $331 +$59 +18%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $401 +$242 +60%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $1,835 +$892 +49%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $1,707 +$1,068 +63%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $1,514 +$816 +54%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $797 −$789 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $317 −$313 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $1,399 +$219 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,805 +$3,101 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $895 +$1,104 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $199 +$171 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $193 +$333 +172%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $86 +$113 +132%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,111 −$1,097 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $951 +$245 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $812 +$140 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $456 +$352 +77%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $254 +$205 +81%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $159 +$95 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $79 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $79 −$77 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $30 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,172 −$1,149 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $793 +$455 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $487 +$307 +63%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Two Move (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern May 30 $87 +$401 +460%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $77 −$77 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $848 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $278 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $278 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $160 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $235 25h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $135 25h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 44¢ $60 25h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 63¢ $132 27h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $132 27h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 74¢ $99 30h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 62¢ $135 30h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $134 30h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 46¢ $63 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $642 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $644 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $114 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $114 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $48 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 24¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $360 2d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 63¢ $166 2d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 100¢ $264 2d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 60¢ $160 2d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 22¢ $69 2d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 23¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 27¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 27¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 25¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.11 · official $417.11 (match) · 158 history records