Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd592…3031 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,042 (+23%) realized +$1,047 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$144
14 days+$662
30 days+$971
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$1,091
world 2% −$87
sports 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -26.0% -33.0% 44% 44% -4.0%
≤30d 22 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 45% +13.5%
≤90d 22 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 45% +13.5%
all 22 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 45% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 45% +13.5%
10% -31.9% 41% +2.6%
15% -38.5% 36% -7.3%
20% -44.5% 32% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$64 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$1,047
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage22d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $268 $268 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 80¢ $27 $38 +$12 (+44%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $6 −$17 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $131 +$71 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$71 +71%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $652 +$71 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$26 +132%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $331 +$162 +49%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $254 +$227 +89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $190 −$186 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $147 +$43 +30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$97 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$97 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $500 +$584 +117%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $483 +$16 +3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $399 +$309 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 77¢ $151 15m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $202 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $131 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $142 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $114 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 42h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 44h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $393 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $200 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $493 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $331 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $331 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $352 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $481 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 46¢ $253 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $550 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $190 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $190 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.17 · official $311.69 (match) · 55 history records