Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd58b…739d
crypto · 185 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses169 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day79.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 184 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 +1.4% -8.3% 92% 24% -10.6%
≤30d 184 +1.4% -8.3% 92% 24% -10.6%
≤90d 184 +1.4% -8.3% 92% 24% -10.6%
all 184 +1.4% -8.3% 92% 24% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 24% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 8% -19.1%
15% -25.1% 3% -26.9%
20% -32.4% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.02 · official $3.02 (match) · 387 history records