Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd586…ac0e crypto 1011 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$436 (-0%) realized −$436 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%597W / 414L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$85
14 days−$98
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,008
sports 0% +$3
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 81% 38% -18.3%
≤30d 31 -11.7% -20.1% 68% 39% -20.4%
≤90d 1011 -3.0% -12.2% 59% 49% -11.0%
all 1011 -3.0% -12.2% 59% 49% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 49% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 43% -19.5%
15% -28.3% 36% -27.3%
20% -35.3% 28% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$56 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses597 / 414
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1011 / 1011
History coverage71d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1011 Trades
no open positions (220 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $47 −$17 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $28 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$7 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$6 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$6 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$18 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $81 +$9 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $81 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 13 $40 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 13 $35 −$31 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 13 $90 −$55 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 13 $87 −$73 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 12 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 11 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 11 $139 −$114 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 11 $84 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 11 $86 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 11 $70 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 11 $129 +$71 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 11 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 11 $188 −$49 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 11 $89 +$10 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $13 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $28 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $81 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $8 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2852 history records