Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:56:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd586…7c9b sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,260 (-9%) realized −$7,461 · open −$799
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,978per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1,331est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$1,245
30 days−$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$9,837
other 2% +$273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -24.4% -31.6% 33% 33% -21.9%
≤90d 44 -19.6% -27.3% 39% 39% -18.6%
all 44 -19.6% -27.3% 39% 39% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 39% -18.6%
10% -34.2% 39% -26.4%
15% -40.6% 39% -33.5%
20% -46.4% 39% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$3,702) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -32% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,342 vs −$1,799 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$7,461
Unrealized−$799
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$1,331
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage80d
Avg bet$1,978
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ $800 $1 −$799 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $305 −$300 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $611 −$600 -98%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $203 +$255 +125%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $712 +$916 +129%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 20 $5,308 +$5,806 +109%
AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $2,700 +$2,726 +101%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 17 $5,025 −$5,025 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $1,000 +$970 +97%
Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $1,000 +$1,051 +105%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $3,760 −$3,702 -98%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $44 −$43 -97%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $1,621 −$1,592 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $2,000 +$1,902 +95%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $4,555 +$4,599 +101%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $300 −$296 -98%
Elche CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $2,584 +$2,314 +90%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $7,022 −$6,914 -98%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $2,645 −$2,603 -98%
Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $3,000 +$2,872 +96%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 10 $5,000 −$4,928 -99%
West Ham United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $1,000 −$984 -98%
AS Roma vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $4,000 −$3,938 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $1,000 −$985 -98%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $7,023 +$7,090 +101%
Juventus FC vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $100 −$99 -99%
Molde FK vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 3.5 Apr 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Tromsø IL vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $1,751 −$1,751 -100%
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Apr 06 $4,390 +$4,390 +100%
Spread: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (-1.5) Apr 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $6,216 −$6,122 -98%
PSV vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $1,000 +$923 +92%
AZ vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $1,100 +$974 +88%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $2,000 +$2,673 +134%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $200 −$197 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $100 −$99 -98%
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) Apr 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Apr 03 $100 −$4 -4%
Russia vs. Mali: O/U 2.5 Apr 01 $200 +$188 +94%
Suns vs. Magic: O/U 224.5 Mar 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Mar 30 $6,200 −$6,200 -100%
Senegal vs. Peru: O/U 2.5 Mar 29 $200 +$169 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 53¢ $101 6d
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 11d
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 11d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 43¢ $102 11d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 40¢ $509 11d
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 11d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 12d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 12d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 12d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 12d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 12d
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 12d
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 12d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 43¢ $102 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 43¢ $102 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 43¢ $102 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 43¢ $102 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 43¢ $102 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 43¢ $102 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 43¢ $102 30d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Olympique Lyonnais 47¢ $332 59d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Olympique Lyonnais 47¢ $1,000 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.81 (match) · 161 history records