Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd586…fffc other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+10%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$5
world 29% −$5
politics 16% +$77
sports 6% +$1
crypto 5% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 36 +6.9% -3.3% 53% 8% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 8% -0.5%
10% -12.5% 6% -10.0%
15% -21.0% 6% -18.7%
20% -28.7% 6% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.95 per $1 lost it wins $5.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage404d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $32 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $34 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $34 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 27 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 08 $9 $0 -4%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $4 $0 -4%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $21 +$76 +370%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 30 $19 +$1 +5%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 18 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Finland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Alpine be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 22m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $17 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $13 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $4 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $28 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $9 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $25 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 78¢ $34 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 95¢ $13 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 95¢ $18 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 92¢ $30 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 33d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $31 33d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 34d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 360d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 360d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records