Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd584…2187 other 437 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$96 (-5%) realized −$92 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate42%181W / 248L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$9
14 days−$61
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 25% −$28
other 22% −$56
crypto 19% −$28
sports 13% −$5
tech 6% −$2
finance 6% +$10
politics 5% −$7
weather 3% −$7
culture 1% +$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +20.0% +8.6% 59% 35% -10.7%
≤30d 348 -7.0% -15.9% 46% 24% -17.2%
≤90d 429 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 23% -16.1%
all 429 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 23% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 23% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 15% -24.1%
15% -28.5% 10% -31.4%
20% -35.5% 6% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses181 / 248
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)429 / 437
History coverage39d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 429 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 20¢ 89¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+342%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 49¢ 55¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 64¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 63¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 60¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 60¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $3 +$1 +17%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $4 −$1 -20%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $7 −$1 -20%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $18 $0 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $4 +$1 +41%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +68%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +106%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $7 +$5 +67%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $4 −$1 -20%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $4 +$2 +54%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $4 −$2 -56%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $4 −$3 -95%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $7 −$4 -50%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $7 −$1 -21%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $7 −$4 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $21 +$2 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 74¢ $4 7m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $4 10m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 62¢ $3 33m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $6 40m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $3 43m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 47¢ $3 49m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 61¢ $4 50m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 53¢ $4 51m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 60¢ $4 52m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 37¢ $3 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ $4 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 52¢ $4 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $4 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 8h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? SELL No 73¢ $1 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? SELL No 70¢ $2 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $1 9h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $1 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? SELL No 85¢ $2 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $1 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 65¢ $4 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.45 · official $25.11 (match) · 1488 history records