Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd582…ed6c other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1
other 22% +$3
sports 10% +$5
crypto 8% $0
weather 4% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 -5.2% -14.2% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 8 -5.2% -14.2% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 32 +0.6% -8.9% 44% 9% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 9% -8.5%
10% -17.7% 3% -17.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage474d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $107 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? May 06 $3 $0 -6%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 07 $1 $0 +22%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will BSW be part of the next German government? Apr 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $24 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 21 $1 $0 -6%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 21 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Feyenoord vs. Inter end in a draw? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Western Carolina vs. Mercer Mar 03 $16 +$5 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $38 2m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $7 2m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $43 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $21 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $22 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $10 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $21 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records