Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd582…4561 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$906 (+39%) realized +$906 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$679
crypto 6% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.3% -13.4% 24% 24% -35.5%
≤30d 21 -4.3% -13.4% 24% 24% -35.5%
≤90d 21 -4.3% -13.4% 24% 24% -35.5%
all 21 -4.3% -13.4% 24% 24% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 24% -35.5%
10% -21.7% 24% -41.6%
15% -29.2% 24% -47.3%
20% -36.2% 24% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$123 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$906
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $220 −$216 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $510 −$500 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $154 +$680 +442%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$448 +438%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$85 +276%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$45 +173%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $227 −$222 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $220 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $205 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 6¢ $103 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $510 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $204 13h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $154 32h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 15¢ $51 33h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 23¢ $51 34h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $39 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $31 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 14¢ $103 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $205 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $10 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 18¢ $227 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records