Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd581…bd3b other 1101 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 160d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$610 (+8%) realized +$620 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%317W / 832L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 161d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$230
crypto 32% −$282
weather 8% −$87
world 8% +$32
economics 4% −$70
tech 4% −$45
politics 3% +$16
sports 3% −$31
finance 1% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -78.1% -80.2% 7% 5% -75.6%
≤30d 135 -43.1% -48.5% 20% 16% -58.8%
≤90d 228 -33.2% -39.5% 24% 18% -45.8%
all 1149 -22.1% -29.5% 28% 21% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 21% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 18% -32.6%
15% -42.4% 15% -39.1%
20% -48.0% 14% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$620
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses317 / 832
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1149 / 1101
History coverage161d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? No 3¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? No 9¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? No 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? No 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? No 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 28? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 31? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 1? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Yemen by December 31? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $250 and $260 on October 11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 28? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mediterranean Sea Rescue organizations win the Nobel Peace Prize Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -142%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Helius be accused of insider trading? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 28? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 27? Jun 15 $2 +$9 +450%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by October 31? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Jun 15 $24 −$25 -103%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Jun 15 $66 −$62 -93%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 26? Jun 15 $9 +$16 +184%
Will International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 28? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kraken be accused of insider trading? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122,000 and $124,000 on October Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Jito be accused of insider trading? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 have more than 75 million views the wee Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 25m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 25m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 25m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 25m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 25m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 25m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 97¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 22h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 22h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 22h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $0 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $0 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $0 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $0 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $0 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? BUY No 1¢ $0 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $0 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? BUY No 1¢ $0 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $0 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 3¢ $4 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 3¢ $0 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 3¢ $0 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 3¢ $0 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.70 · official $15.70 · 3500 history records