Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd57f…1644 weather 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+4%) realized +$37 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate73%93W / 34L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% −$2
crypto 47% +$22
other 2% −$5
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.5% -14.5% 83% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 42 -2.6% -11.9% 88% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 127 -1.8% -11.2% 73% 9% -7.6%
all 127 -1.8% -11.2% 73% 9% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -7.6%
10% -19.7% 2% -16.5%
15% -27.4% 1% -24.5%
20% -34.5% 1% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses93 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage62d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 95¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on May 26? May 26 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 19? May 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 18? May 23 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 17? May 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 11? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 15? May 15 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on May 15? May 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 14? May 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 12? May 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $14 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 9? May 09 $14 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 49¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 46¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 45¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 45¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 46¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 47¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 43¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 43¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 48¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 48¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.71 · official $1.71 (match) · 1249 history records